Hello, first of all apologies this is rather a long post but i'm getting hammered here.
first of all i think its great that this debate is going on, and i think the first thing to emphasise is that it is a debate and if it remains maturely so then i reckon it will be pretty beneficial to everyone.
Secondly i can definitely understand why eyebrows are being raised about the number of LTS seen at Sheringham yesterday and not just from other sites, went down the shelters this morning and all the birders from yesterday have varying numbers - 4,8,9,1...
For my part, i don't know exactly how many i saw because i prefer not to be distracted by counting when i'm watching, need to be concentrated and relaxed so i don't take notes. What i do know is that our section let go at least 4 birds as Skua sp and there were at least two birds that i didn't count myself although other happy with them (but i have no doubt these were also LTS, i also missed 1. To answer the question regarding 'Skua sp' i simply don't do 'skua sp', i know nature is all about murky grey areas (especially when it comes to LTS ID ; - ) but i can't iD i just forget about - maybe i shouldn't i don't know!
The story of the day (and i will be as honest as i can possibly get on this). The first thing to know was this was a very strange seawatch, hardly any wind and as i result all the Skuas were in relaxed flight flying quite high above the horizon. Secondly i was in a section with someone who i and many others consider probably to be the best seawatcher in Norfolk, hes been going since the 70's what i have learnt from him so far has been invaluable. Also in my section was another extremely competent observer and we seemed to get one other voice from the section to our left again a very recognisable and excellent birder. For myself personally, ive been perfecting the 1000 yard stare for the last twenty years and i think ive sort of got my eye in! was able to call numerous stuff throughout - around 8 LTS, 2 Sabs, Balearic etc, this may sound bigheaded but i just want to say my record on land birds is pretty poor just always feel more tuned into the sea (read this as you may) so overall consider myself fairly average - still learning though ; - ) . Overall i would say the three most recognisable and respected seawatchers in the shelter + me were shouting all the Long-tails.
The first bird to go through was an easy close tailless adult, which i missed but which i think everyone in the whole shelter was happy with, the second was a distant juv. Initially i couldn't tell it from an Arctic, i then realised i had to throw everthing i knew about juv skuas out the window. These birds are so subtle you have got to look closely, REALLY closely at to pick out diagnostic features, the bird was slimmer in body and wing, with a more ternlike, bouyant flight than Arctic and this particular bird then turned swooped back, revealing barred utcs a thin black tail, it then stalled and skimmed the surface of the water (classic LTS behaviour). From this point onwards it was like a door was opened and we were able to tell the subtly different flight, slim build, thin tails, chestiness, barring on UTC, colder colouration (last two not always apparent because of distance) all birds 'stalling' at least once and quite few birds skimming over the water and picking food from the sarface of the water with their bill - i.e like Black Tern (which ive never seen an Arctic do) - all in all plumage, behaviour and j1zz all clearly different from the Arctics. Yet another contentious comment but i certainly found the more distant LTS easier than the less distant, i find there is a mid-distance range where all Skuas get really tricky.
Probably two defining moments was a LT next to Bonxie and looking not small in comparison but MINUTE. the best moment had to be me saying 'with all these close juv Arctics its about time we had a close juv LT', when as if on queue - boom one came past and we got EVERYTHING on it.
Now for the bit where i was dodgy, the LT's all came through in a relatively small short space of time and once they were through they were no stragglers, this was actually quite tricky, we were watching alot of Skuas, which rther than quickly looking like LT's, we had to pick apart and realised they were Arctics, during this time i called two LT's completely wrong they were flying directly in with an Arctic so all you could see were the outline of the wings, when they swung round they were clearly Arctics, was a bit gutted but i think its only natural and a good thing if you make mistakes on a seawatch - always room for improvement.
In terms of the lack of adults, i think this is entirely in keeping with the migration of LTS. Migrating birds in Autumn generally consist of juvs because (according to Olsen from Skuas and Jaegers) the more experienced adults migrate directly to the West and move into central Atlantic before moving South, thus dispensing with any pre-migration dispersal. i find him a bit unclear here, but i think what he is saying is that adults are more hardcore and can take on rougher conditions and but will be able to get to wintering grounds quicker, while juv will go down the North sea where the feeding is better.
To the person who keeps seeing small slim Arctics, yes there are skinny Arctics out there, i saw a dinky adult this morning, and there is size differential between the sexes, females guard the nest = bigger, males do the hunting = smaller, but next time you see a thin winged, slim Skua with a light flight look really close - its probably a LTS, they are regular of this coast but under-recorded.
In terms of LTS not being seen at other sites in particular (an remember this is only a debate) i know this is very contentious because of the calibre of the observers at places like Cley, but i feel LTS were being missed and called as Arctics, certainly the 89 Arctics at Cley seems about 19 more Arctics than we had at Sheringham : - ), it is mystifying especially as we had a close ad and juv which were easy! there has always been this Cley / Sheringham divide on LTS based on the observers who watch each individual site. there are usually more seen at Sheringham than Cley. I don't really want to be drawn any further on this though!
After all this droning on a guess you guys probably got your hands in sockets, but one further thing to reflect on is that in the 70's the Norfolk seawatchers of the time (one of which i was watching with yesterday) were constantly slagging off Flamborough Head for all the ridiculous, stringy massive totals of LTS's they were claiming, the Norfolk lot kept on seeing all these tiny Skuas going past but they put these down as the 'small race of Arctic Skua!
By the way, reakon its all going to happen again on friday : -)