Hi CAU, as you are seeing probably many more scaups than I, can you estimate how common it is for first winter scaup to have a large bright white patch at the base of the bill while having moulted otherwise mostly to breeding plumage?
I always remembered such a patch as much more dirty and irregular looking but maybe i am wrong?
Concerning the photo you linked, Gentoo;
I am still not sure what this bird is?
I have been checking on the coloration in hybrids and pure Scaup and did not find many supposedly pure scaup looking that darkbacked as the bird in question here, but a few were close. It has a lot to do with the light situation at the actual photo how contrasty and how darkbacked the bird appears , it seemed to me.
What I did do then is look at some photos of adult males Greater Scaup x Tufted Duck and Scaup sp. (not clear if lesser or greater) x Ringnecked Duck in full breeding plumage, find the result attached.
So colourwise the probable first generation hybrids Greater Scaup x Tufted Duck in full breeding plumage were whiteflanked,
whereas Scaup sp. xRingnecked duck has a greyish caste to the flanks (and pattern seems to be at least sometimes slightly vermiculated).
This seems to be closer to adult hybrids ringnecked x scaup sp. then-- but a few bad photos of moulting greater scaup x tuftie did also show some greyish on flanks or some vermiculations.
Also i checked on appearance of a tuft in hybrids- most f1 hybrids Tufted x greater scaup in full breeding plumage have a clearly visible tuft (though it can be small-but still clearly visible), but in some cases it can be flattened.
So absence of tuft in head shape on one photo does not nessecarily mean it can´t have a tufted duck parent.
The head shape of Ringnecked duck x Scaup sp shows the ringnecked influence- being much more peaked than in the scaups -- however , the bird in the photo is in an odd position as it swallows a clam, therefore i am not 100% confident if head shape isn´t influenced somehow.
Amount of black on bill tip is in general closer to greater scaup in f1 hybrids Tufted x greater scaup where i have seen this feature. I can not give information on the variation in Ringnecked x Scaup sp.- but there are at least some with more black on bill tip.
However, with Aythya, there is always also the possibility it is not an F1 hybrid as the Aythya hybrids seem generally fertile...
So I still am not sure what this bird exactly is...
I think we would be at a better situation if more photos emerge