Here are the species that could potentially be added to the new "Provisional ABA list":
Provisional in eBird due to not-yet-ABA-accepted populations:
-Tanimbar Corella
-Burrowing Parakeet
-Orange-cheeked Waxbill
-Salmon-crested Cockatoo
-White Cockatoo
-Golden Pheasant
Established on eBird but not accepted to ABA checklist:
-Japanese Quail
-Lavender Waxbill
The treatment of these Hawaiian birds seems especially interesting to me, especially with regard to equity with other states.
When eBird rolled out its new exotics policy, there were guidelines on how the categories were assigned, but it was for the most part established using the local expertise of the eBird reviewers. I had some limited involvement in this - for example in my state (Indiana) we determined which counties would be expected to have European Goldfinch originating from the Milwaukee/Chicago population more so than released cagebirds, thusly a Goldfinch is "Naturalized" near Lake Michigan but "Escapee" in Indianapolis until proven otherwise.
I've since learned that the different locations have something of different treatments of their exotics. I was surprised to see that Mandarin Duck is considered Provisional in Utah on the strength of several Salt Lake City Parks which seem to host three or less apiece, plus one hotspot which seems to have more of a population... the Springville Swan Farm. The species has far more "singleton" presence in places like Los Angeles, Sacramento, and Portland Oregon, where they are still considered "Escapee." Californian eBird considers the Sonoma County population "Provisional" - where I believe there is a history of breeding bird survey data occurrence (but I don't know for sure).
Hawaiian criteria are different still - I have the sense that some of these birds are labeled "Provisional" more to keep them under watch to see how established or not they become, rather than the "California method" of labeling which are breeding birds but not on the official checklist. As such, if we were using California rules, Japanese Quail and Lavender Waxbill would probably be "Provisional" not "Established" and the others might be bumped down to "Exotic" (the Corella perhaps being a borderline case). There is even debate whether Salmon-crested and White Cockatoos reports represent mostly or almost entirely hybrids beyond the initial ringed released birds.
I can understand these differences in philosophy - the topography, bird life, and conservation issues are drastically different between Hawaii and California, and it makes sense that monitoring interests would differ accordingly. And, as I've emphasized in other threads, eBird is primarily a data gathering tool - our personal checklists are a secondary (at best) concern.
That is not so for the ABA, and there are many layers of apples being compared to oranges. So does the ABA accept that a countable bird has different criteria in Salt Lake City than it does in Los Angeles? Does the ABA have different continental and Hawaii systems for Provisional birds? Does ABA address the nuance or ignore it? And my least favorite question - does eBird adjust its system to accommodate ABA listers? I think we need a lot more answers than given in a single sentence or so in the last ABA announcement; they are promised this spring and should be interesting.