Corona virus threat to birding (1 Viewer)

[pppppvvvv]

You mean it seriously? You would like to build a whole separate system for sharing of everything? Sure, money is gonna be problem now for some people, the solution to that is for the state to give them some help, in form of money. The state controls the system of the currency, it can always make it out of thin air (in effect taking a bit from everyone) and give to those in need, or even just borrow. That's still orders of magnitude less complicated. Money as a means of exchange simply works and everything is set up for its use.

Also, don't underestimate the amount of people that aren't well integrated into the system. I mean if countries now started distributing food only to legal residents, I'd die of starvation. Yes, it's my problem, but it doesn't mean that it wouldn't lead to absurd amount of issues.

Not particularly seriously, I realise it isn't a goer, or it would be talked about and considered.

Just wondered why it was such a bad idea.
We are noticing the system of money isn't exactly working well in the last couple of days. With flash redundancies, companies going bust, and panic buying / shortages / racketeering.

 

[opisska]

At the same time totally screwing all persons from the neighbouring Baltic States by refusing to allow a humanitarian window to allow hundreds of Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians stranded on their border with Germany to cross in a normal manner. Nobody with cars (self-containd spaces for drivers and passengers) is allowed to cross (even in an escorted convoy), but instead they are being forced onto trains or convoys of buses that then mean close contact with many other persons - blood on the hands of the Polish government. Additionally, they are also screwing Polish citizens by making the border essentially impermeable to both returning Polish citizens and cargo that will keep shops stocked - there is a 60 km queue of stationary vehicles (mostly trucks, many Polish registered) today on the Lithuanian side of the border trying to cross back into Poland. Poland is doing nothing.

Better service indeed.

Wow, that's an interesting perspective. Hungary is now allowing Romanians/Bulgarians to cross for a limited amount of time at least.

If you ask me, I think that this insistence on closing borders even with countries that have similar/less cases than you is quite silly, but as I have been saying for a while, half of the countries were just waiting for the first excuse to close the borders that comes along anyway.

 

[RafaelMatias]

Yes Spanish borders closed.

Very valid question. My girlfriend lives in Lisbon and I honestly thought that it would be the last visit for some time (having not been since January). On the Saturday morning when I was hesitating I spoke to mayor who was talking about the ski stations and how the decisions to keep them open were being taken at the end of this week and also the elections were still taking place. One friend is quite high up in the military and he said after the elections something would happen.

I thought I’d get more than 12 hours notice!

So in hindsight not that clever but at least I get a bit longer with the girlfriend and I’m not on lockdown on my own in France - the downside is the alternate time with the kids. Although the x was insisting that one of us have the kids for the whole shutdown period...

On another positive I get to go birdwatching and we even had a celebratory st Patrick’s day glass of wine in O’Neill’s in Caiscais today...

I'd stay calm and stay at home until the French embassy tells you what's going to follow. I guess France will organize a flight to take back all that want to leave.
There are cases of Portuguese emigrants stuck at the border with Spain, wanting to get to France to reunite with their families there, so there are quite a few dramatic cases.
I'd not go out birdwatching if I were you, honestly, or socializing in any way right now. We're trying to flatten down the growth curve and all efforts are really necessary. Even if you feel there's not a big chance of contagion for yourself, this is an effort all have to do, and when others see that not everyone goes by what is being asked for all then they feel they can also do it and then a lot of people ends up not following what we all should be doing... and then it doesn't work for anyone.
Personally, I'm not going out in any way (I'd need to for research I'm doing but I won't) as I don't want to be a potential spreading agent for others (remember the real possibility of asymptomatic spread) that could lead to more fragile people than me to end up in the hospital or worse. I'm not visiting my elderly parents also, and I have real fears that on the day they might need immediate health care at the hospital, those resources could be being used on other who did not take all the extreme measures they should have. Let's make sure we really don't have here what they're having in Italy, which is basically a true nightmare.
Please pay close attention to the news, as there are changes every day to what we're allowed to do right now. Note that the closing of the borders (with Spain) was leaked Sunday night (not a 12 hours notice at all), and that measure was expected to be announced at any moment for the few days before. Please, do not take the situation lightly because the number of infected people is low right now. At a 35-40% rate of daily increase it will rise very fast on the next few days and by the 31st we'll have about 30 000 infected people, who we'll be infected during the next few days.
So keep safe and take care of yourself, but thinking of others as well.

 

[Lawts]

Lawts - I might be wrong but I understood the advice to avoid non-essential travel to be for foreign trips.

I am intending continuing local birding (nothing more than 25 miles) on my own as long as I can avoid close contact with other birders. Some of the places I routinely visit it will not be a problem at all.

Steve

Hi Steve, it's avoiding social contact. So even on your short trip, if you stopped for petrol, or stopped for a coffee, or came within a couple of metres of other birders, you'd be going against the advice. I guess I'm particularly thinking about news from off-shore islands, which clearly involves ferries and flights.

 

[Lawts]

I plan to be birding this weekend: it's far less likely to spread the disease than joining the crowds panic buying in shops. Mind you there's the small matter of a speed awareness course on Saturday morning that still seems to be on.

I take your point, but there's an argument that staying at home is a safer bet than both. People shouldn't be shopping unless for essentials, and people shouldn't be birding if there's any social contact.

 

[rosbifs]

Just re-read the French directive which states that short sorties for exercise (on your own) are allowed... and walking of dogs. Both within the proximity of your home...

A short walk with bins good for your health. Summer is coming and the virus will largely go away. Let’s hope that before next winter a vaccine is found...

 

[3Italianbirders]

At the same time totally screwing all persons from the neighbouring Baltic States by refusing to allow a humanitarian window to allow hundreds of Lithuanians, Latvians and Estonians stranded on their border with Germany to cross in a normal manner. Nobody with cars (self-contained spaces for drivers and passengers) is allowed to cross (even in an escorted convoy), but instead they are being forced onto trains or convoys of buses that then mean close contact with many other persons - blood on the hands of the Polish government. Additionally, they are also screwing Polish citizens by making the border essentially impermeable to both returning Polish citizens and cargo that will keep shops stocked - there is a 60 km queue of stationary vehicles (mostly trucks, many Polish registered) today on the Lithuanian side of the border trying to cross back into Poland. Poland is doing nothing.

Better service indeed.

You mean they are also stopping cargo? That's unprecedented! Nobody else is doing it! :eek!: Pure madness.

 

[pppppvvvv]

I take your point, but there's an argument that staying at home is a safer bet than both. People shouldn't be shopping unless for essentials, and people shouldn't be birding if there's any social contact.

Also, if you had a mishap on your travels, then people will need to assist you, which wouldn't be fair in this situation.

 

[Andy Adcock]

Hi Steve, it's avoiding social contact. So even on your short trip, if you stopped for petrol, or stopped for a coffee, or came within a couple of metres of other birders, you'd be going against the advice. I guess I'm particularly thinking about news from off-shore islands, which clearly involves ferries and flights.

That could be moot soon when petrol goes the way of everything else.

 

[RafaelMatias]

Just re-read the French directive which states that short sorties for exercise (on your own) are allowed... and walking of dogs. Both within the proximity of your home...

A short walk with bins good for your health. Summer is coming and the virus will largely go away. Let’s hope that before next winter a vaccine is found...

That's actually not true. Nobody knows that, and current evidence suggests this is going to be endemic in a number of places. Being a new virus, there's no info on what a year cycle will look like, and there's nothing suggesting it will have a seasonal behaviour.
I see you're not taking this seriously, but I just hope that is not going to be harmful for others. If everyone bends the rules for their own selfish reasons then some of us are sacrificing so that others can keep doing whatever they want. I'd say that's not right at all. I just don't understand that.

 

[Mysticete]

Spring Waterfowl season here, so birding largely consists of driving around looking for geese and swans in fields and open water with other ducks. So no social contact needed.

I would argue, given that we could be in for a couple of months of this, we also need to consider mental health. I doubt many of us could stay locked inside an apartment for that entire length of time without depression and other factors. I think if there are activities you can carry out while social distancing, I don't see an issue.

 

[opisska]

You mean they are also stopping cargo? That's unprecedented! Nobody else is doing it! :eek!: Pure madness.

They are only reportedly not handling letting it through very efficiently. The official position is that cargo is allowed, but the queues are long from all sides - still not this insane from Czech side, so even I was shocked by the number.

 

[Deb Burhinus]

Bl@%£y mobile phone networks down half the day too - apparently because millions of people (including myself) have been told to work from home.

Meanwhile the Treasury is busy bankrupting the country in a half ar&ed effort to stop everything else going to the wall, car phone shops being requisitioned to make highly sensitive and finely calibrated medical equipment instead of phones, breweries making hand sanitizers rather than whiskey, global shortage of toilet rolls on shop shelves because a few Aussies decided early on that the worse thing about a pandemic was not being able to clean your bum, borders shutting down all over the world because governments feel controlling the masses is the next best thing when you've lost control of the pandemic and the masses wondering if it’s still OK to walk the dog ... It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.

FUBAR!!!

 

[dantheman]

That's actually not true. Nobody knows that, and current evidence suggests this is going to be endemic in a number of places. Being a new virus, there's no info on what a year cycle will look like, and there's nothing suggesting it will have a seasonal behaviour.
I see you're not taking this seriously, but I just hope that is not going to be harmful for others. If everyone bends the rules for their own selfish reasons then some of us are sacrificing so that others can keep doing whatever they want. I'd say that's not right at all. I just don't understand that.

The reality is that you are likely to not be able to go outside for several months now. If you (as a youngish person) did catch the coronavirus it would most likely not do you serious harm.

If the elderly could be highly protected as the utmost priority, that would make the most sense imo. If the systems we have in the western world collapse, consequences could be more severe down the line.


As viruses go, I don't know how the chance of it mutating increases - is it time, or number of infection cycles (ie individuals)?

 

[Steve Babbs]

No one is saying don't go out at all yet. The schools are still open. Frankly most things fade into insignificance compared to that. I have the joy of sharing a relatively small space with 400 children and I do have a respiratory problem. My class are reasonable at personal hygiene the younger ones aren't.

Yes my car could break down on its short trips but it almost definitely won't. Yes I will buy fuel: from an auto pump using gloves.

People will still have to shop unless they are one of the ones who have ****ed everyone else with their hoarding.

 

[RafaelMatias]

If you (as a youngish person) did catch the coronavirus it would most likely not do you serious harm.

I'm not worried about myself, but with breaking or loosening the contagion chain right now, so that I'm not responsible for other getting sick and eventually dead. If that is not done/achieved during this next week (reducing the spreading rate) then we'll go the same path as Italy did. The national health system will just not cope with all cases and things will get very bad very quickly. According to my own calculations, if we keep a 35% daily increase rate we'll reach 6 million infected people by the 18th April. There are just not enough ventilators for all critical cases we'll have. If the rate is higher, as it was 2 days ago, of 45%, then it will be beyond bad and we'll reach the same mark 1 week earlier. There we'll be lots of time for birding and other stuff, let's make an effort now, while there's still time to flatten the curve, otherwise it'll get out of control fast.

If the elderly could be highly protected as the utmost priority, that would make the most sense imo. If the systems we have in the western world collapse, consequences could be more severe down the line.

That's what I'm personally doing within my family. They are fully isolated (with any goods brought to them with military precision), but if it gets out of control everywhere around them, it will get to them (i.e., they still need to get food from a provider, it's impossible to reduce risk to an absolute 100%; my dad suffers from cancer, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and is within the highest risk group of all, I'm taking this extremely personally).

As viruses go, I don't know how the chance of it mutating increases - is it time, or number of infection cycles (ie individuals)?

You have both mutations per RNA base pair and per generation.

 

[Jos Stratford]

You mean they are also stopping cargo? That's unprecedented! Nobody else is doing it! :eek!: Pure madness.

Officially allowed through, but insisting on very stringent tests of each driver, and as I understand waiting for results or something. Lithuania is only 300 km top to bottom, we now have a queue of 60 km! The Lithuanian-Polish border is not a particularly busy crossing, but the obstinate position of the Polish is something that reminds folk in this region of something they saw in the Soviet era.

 

[dantheman]

I'm not worried about myself, but with breaking or loosening the contagion chain right now, so that I'm not responsible for other getting sick and eventually dead. If that is not done/achieved during this next week (reducing the spreading rate) then we'll go the same path as Italy did. The national health system will just not cope with all cases and things will get very bad very quickly. According to my own calculations, if we keep a 35% daily increase rate we'll reach 6 million infected people by the 18th April. There are just not enough ventilators for all critical cases we'll have. If the rate is higher, as it was 2 days ago, of 45%, then it will be beyond bad and we'll reach the same mark 1 week earlier. There we'll be lots of time for birding and other stuff, let's make an effort now, while there's still time to flatten the curve, otherwise it'll get out of control fast.


That's what I'm personally doing within my family. They are fully isolated (with any goods brought to them with military precision), but if it gets out of control everywhere around them, it will get to them (i.e., they still need to get food from a provider, it's impossible to reduce risk to an absolute 100%; my dad suffers from cancer, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and is within the highest risk group of all, I'm taking this extremely personally).

Haven't seen any modelling for how many would get it seriously if we could exclude the older/at risk, and get most of the population to get it out of 'the way' so to speak (but should be easy enough to do, on current 'assumptions'.)

However (and hindsight is marvellous) if most countries had instigated more stringent quarantine/self-quarantine on all new entrants a lot earlier... It feels a little like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted, as the saying goes.

Very much trust your folks stay well. It's a similar situation for my parents down in France - obviously I can't help them at all right now but have told them (!) to stop all their domestic aid (which they are entitled to) etc, quarantine/disinfect their food deliveries, and only accept essential health visitors from now on.

Also (and not just for brownie points on here ) - went round to the neighbour this afternoon to enquire if she had local family who would pick up shopping etc for her. Turns out she doesn't, so I said she shouldn't go down the shops any more and we would do her shopping etc for her ...

 

[3Italianbirders]

This is really good to hear that somewhere in Europe this is being implemented.

It seems that Tuscany will be rolling out mass testing!

 

[Jeff Hopkins]

Just saw an interesting idea in the Philly Inquirer. Some stores are instituting "senior hours" when only seniors can shop in order to reduce their exposure to asymptomatic carriers.

IMO that's actually pretty clever.